Moody’s Analytics has correctly predicted the presidential winner every election cycle since 1980. Their constructed predictor model is based upon on a two-year change in economic data in home prices, income growth, and gasoline prices. Essentially, three variables that have a direct effect on the average Americans’s life. And based on the calculated data, the predicted winner according to the nonpartisan group will be Hillary Clinton.
“Things that affect marginal voter behavior most significantly are things that the average American is going to run into on an almost daily basis,” Head Analyst Dan White told NPR. “We are currently in the largest decline in gas prices we’ve had going back to World War II,” White said, indicating declined gas prices usually point to the incumbent Democratic party nominee’s favor.
And for the group’s estimated electoral vote outcome? 332 electoral votes for Hillary, 206 for Donald Trump. The oldest prediction model, created at Yale by economics professor Ray Fair, disagrees.