Obama’s presidential campaign in 2008 and 2012 focused on gaining massive support and turnout from millennials, blacks, and women. Even though these groups typically vote for the Democratic Party, they aren’t nearly as supportive for Clinton as they were for Obama in the 2012 election.
Four of the most recent polls tracked by Real Clear Politics that breakdown voter support along the lines of race, gender and age, show a substantial decline in support for Clinton, compared to Obama’s numbers in 2012.
The most recent Fox News, Quinnipiac, NBC/Wall Street Journal, The Economist/YouGov and CBS polls show Clinton winning on average 46 percent of millennials, 86 percent of blacks, and 50 percent of women.
While Clinton is currently winning all three of these demographic groups, there’s a distinct decrease from the 2012 election when Obama won 60 percent of millennials, 93 percent of blacks, and 55 percent of women. The difference between Clinton and Obama amounts to a 17 percentage point lag among millennials, 7 percent lag among blacks, and 7 percent lag among women.
Clinton is very likely to will all three demographic groups but their lack of excitement could lead to a noticeable decline in turnout in support of her.
A small decline in voter turnout amongst millennials, blacks, and women because they lack the excitement for Clinton that they had for Obama could easily cost her millions of votes and ultimately her chances of winning.