Donald Trump is facing new challenges in the post-primary and post-convention world, as the emerging electoral map is moving toward Democratic rival Hillary Clinton’s favor due to demographic trends.
Over the weekend, statewide polls showed Clinton with a formidable 12 percentage-point lead in Virginia, a swing state home to her running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine. She is also acquiring a 10-point lead in Michigan, one of the industrial Midwestern states that Trump has vowed to contest.
Trump led by only two points in a new poll in Arizona — a traditionally Republican state. However, the increasing number of Democratic-leaning Hispanic voters could undo this advantage. Trump is also trailing by four points in Georgia, which last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in the 1992 election. Clinton is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, where the convention was held.
“These polls come on the heels of a lot of news,” warns political scientist Michael McDonald of the University of Florida, explaining the negative press of Trump will have a correlating effect. That could depress Republicans’ willingness to respond to a pollster and their enthusiasm about voting, but probably only temporarily.
“Most likely, we should see these very good polls for Clinton … come back down a bit. That said, I don’t know how far they will revert,” McDonald adds. “This is a very unpredictable election at this point.”